Back in June, when I last wrote about consumer confidence levels, I said I was starting to feel a positive retail shift. Yeah, this is probably why it’s a good thing that I don’t do economic forecasting for a living. My hunches are about as reliable as my sense of direction.

And in this case, that’s a real bummer. While Fashion’s Night Out was clearly a success in boosting morale, and in many cases sales for the night, the reality of fashion’s retail situation is still murky at best. The newest numbers released about how consumers are feeling are not so positive, and the people that are paid to analyze such things don’t think there will be much of a significant upswing anytime soon, regardless of the fact that most economists are claiming the recession generally over.

A senior credit officer tells WWD, “There’s been this fundamental shift of people going back to saving and repaying debt. Some of what drove retail growth four or five years ago was really just a bubble of readily available consumer credit.” And that makes a whole lot of sense to me. And while not helpful to struggling fashion businesses, probably a better way to live and not slide back into even worse debt.

As if you needed another reason to shop the cute items at fredflare.com, for today only Fred Flare is donating 5% of all sales to help send adorable Chris Hues designed hearts to kids all over the world.

Chris started out sending the hearts to kids suffering from cancer and now his hearts are distributed by the Heart to Heart International organization to children on every continent.

And as wrapped up in the tizzy of Fashion Week preparations as we already are, it’s always good to step back and think about the bigger picture, right? Consider it a good deed for the day.

So head over to fredflare.com and start shopping! (We’d recommend this “i heart you” dress to start)

If you’re in New York City this weekend and looking to drop some cash in anticipation of your tax return, there are some pretty good options:

- There’s Mixona, right next door to us on Mott Street, who’s offering a buy-one-get-one-half-off on any pieces of lingerie from Cosabella, Wolford and Eberjey, starting tomorrow.

- But if you’re looking to get shopping today, there’s the extended Scoop sale, the last day of the Hayden-Harnett sale (which we hear gets new stock today), and the Alejandro Ingelmo sale which started today at 10am on Mercer Street.

So get going.

For more sales, see here.

About one minute into my trip to the new Paige Denim store in the West Village yesterday, I was a little miffed. Not because some guy muttered something about “artfully destroyed jeans” to me as I walked in, but because I went there specifically for the Petites Line, which takes up about 1/16 of the store.

Which brings me to my greater question: Why exactly are jeans so incredibly long? My “petite” jeans I bought yesterday came with a tag that reads, “This collection offers perfect proportions for the petite. Rather than simply cropping the length, this garment has been rescaled and tailored to accomodate [sic] the woman who is 5’4” and under.” Which is interesting, seeing as how the average height for the female American woman is 5’4” (and that statistic doesn’t take into account all the still-growing teenage girls who probably buy more jeans than all the rest of us combined).

It’s not that I’m naive about these things. I stare at and mull over fashion for a living, so I am fully aware that most designs are intended for people that don’t even exist. But you’d think that such an ordinary item wouldn’t be subject to the idea that everybody’s 5’10 and 85 pounds (and I won’t even bother to present the argument that making people-size jeans would help the cost since less fabric should equal less money - my petites are always the same price as their foot-longer counterparts).

So does anyone have the missing piece of information to this mystery? Because it would really help my weekend.

Lanvin. Sale. 70%. For real.

UPDATE: Lanvin is denying the sale. Hmm…

1. Because after all the little flashes of jade at Chanel, you can’t get the idea out of your head either.

2. Because you should really stock up on your spring wares so you actually have stuff in your closet come real spring.

3. Because you might be strapped for cash these days, and these adorable stainless steel bud studs are $5, which is less than I paid for my bagel with lox this morning.

4. Because they’re made in America and you’ve been totally meaning to help out with that whole economy thing.

5. Did I mention they’re $5? And since shipping will cost you $1.95 no matter what, you may as well scoop them up in red, baby blue, yellow and purple, too. Come to think of it, that might make a cute decoration down the length of a placket or along a cute clutch.

Did I miss anything?

Fact: It’s supposed to be around 56 degrees in NYC on Sunday.

Fact: So whether you’re getting home from Paris via JFK or poring over the shows on Style.com, the Fashion Odyssey has probably made you think of nothing but shopping (and yes, we know that NaP sale isn’t doing shit for us either).

So you might like to know there are a couple decent sales this weekend:

The Adam sale, which started Wednesday and ends Sunday (60 - 80% off) and Rachel Roy, which starts Sunday and gives you the chance to pick up some Spring pieces at 75% off. It’s also the last weekend of the Resurrection anniversary extravaganza, which means you could hit a triple header of sales before hitting up the brunch special at Nero.

Happy Friday.

Stila wants to survive the recession.

So?

They’re offering a 20% off shopping discount along with free shipping on their site until April 11th.

Just use the code “stimulus” when checking out.

Really, that’s all.

And you’re welcome.

If you frequent Net-a-Porter’s “Newest Reductions” page as much as we do, then you might have noticed that their entire sale section recently disappeared (we’re assuming it’s been shipped over to the OutNet, but we’ll see).

In its place? A new section dedicated to video content, including re-runs of the Spring 09 shows and commentary from Net-a-Porter’s editors on how to wear the clothes, trends, and interviews with featured designers.

So far, we’re considering this as an alternative to lunchtimes spent on YouTube.

Also on its way is Net-a-Porter’s NOTES, their print mini-magazine that’s been on a hiatus for a few seasons. Look for its revival, starting with Spring 09, in the post soon.

Reminder:

The What Comes Around Goes Around Sale (which is usually private and appointment only) starts today.

That means, if you can get yourself all the way down to 13 -17 Laight Street, 5th Floor (buzzer # 28, 212.274.8340) by 11am, you’ll be the first to launch yourself into the 100,000 or so pieces available at up to 75% off.

The moving sale goes on until the 24th, open every single day until 7pm.

We suggest either going today or waiting until next weekend - Since there’ll be additional discounts and new items added every week, it might be worth it to wait especially since Fashion Week will automatically cancel out so many of the shoppers starting on the 12th.

See you out there.

Isaac Mizrahi’s first Liz Claiborne collection has hit the mama company’s site, and we’re sure you’ll now be entertained for the entirety of this morning.

Not only does the site include more looks than last month’s preview, but plenty of the pieces are already available for purchase, and at prices that make all the recent clearance sales seem like highway robbery.

The wool dress at left (which could be worn on a cool summer day, with a t-shirt tucked under during the spring/fall, and with strategic layering through the winter)? $149.

Plus, the site’s been appropriately Isaac-ed up: You can send him questions, there’s a “Fit Lab” full of his advice, and you can even enter a contest to win pieces from the collection.

We bet Ralph Lauren’s shaking in their booties.

Memo:

Charlotte Ronson’s I [Heart] Ronson line for JC Penney is now available for perusal on the JC Penney site.

We’ll admit the most exciting part is definitely the price range, but at least you have something more realistic to window-shop before the McQueen sale on Gilt at noon today.

On a side note, does anyone else think the model, at left, looks a bit like Confessions of a Shopaholic’s Isla Fisher?

Over the weekend, you may have read about Lucky magazine’s new iPhone application, Lucky at Your Service, a shopping feature that allows readers to locate the exact location of any item featured in the March Lucky, complete with a customer service center that will text you with notifications like, “Your Chloe dress is now set aside for you at the Soho Bloomingdale’s.”

So far, the service is free and you can only locate items featured in the March issue. But in the future, Lucky wants to offer users the ability to search for items in upcoming issues, too, which has us wondering:

1. For how long can this service co-exist with the magazine itself? Why pay for the print edition when everything in it will be available in your phone, and with the added bonus of being able to automatically pin point where that perfect pair of booties is hiding?

2. There’s no way this can be free for too long - We picture Lucky at Your Service becoming a hit with Lucky readers (the same people who pay to read a catalog - though, full disclosure, we think there’s nothing to get you in the mood for Fall fashion like the September Lucky) which would pretty much make the print edition useless, probably within a year.

So, does Lucky realize this? Absolutely. We think this is the smartest method to fighting folding - while preserving your brand image, too - we’ve seen so far.

News:

What Comes Around Goes Around is moving their famous vintage archive, so they’re having a sale to lighten the load of 100,000+ pieces. So bust out your Sharpie:

13 -17 Laight Street, 5th Floor, Buzzer # 28, 212.274.8340.

Wednesday, February 4 - Tuesday, February 24, Seven days a week 11am - 7pm

Up to 75% off (more details), new items added weekly, ridiculously deep discounts during the last week - incredible.

And yes, we’ll remind you on the 3rd.

Taschen, maker of visually amazing books that are way too expensive for most people, is having a warehouse sale at their Greene Street store next weekend.

We know we’re telling you a little early, but even with the books at 50 - 75% off, you might still have to skip a few lattes in order to get some of the better, more popular fashion tomes.

Hours: Friday, January 23rd and Saturday, January 24th: 11am - 8pm, and Sunday, January 25th: 12pm - 8pm.

Because we know all you’ll want to do by next weekend is read in bed with a hot toddy anyway, right?